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Taxes could affect Indian Alcobev Industry

High taxation significantly burdens the Indian alcohol industry by increasing production costs, impacting profitability, and potentially driving consumers towards illicit alternatives. While GST doesn’t directly tax alcohol, increased taxes on input materials and logistics contribute to higher retail prices. This, coupled with state-specific excise duties and other levies, leads to a complex and fragmented market with varying prices and access points.

Indian alcohol market is estimated to be valued at 60.11 bn in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 101.10 bn in 2032, exhibiting compound annual growth (CAGR) 0f 7.7% from 2025 to 2032.

India’s alcoholic beverage industry faces regulatory hurdles like liquor bans and high taxation, impacting revenue and market share. Despite these challenges, the industry is projected to grow significantly, driven by premiumisation and evolving consumer preferences.

High taxation, particularly state-level excise duties and other levies, significantly burdens the Indian alcohol industry, impacting both producers and consumers. The industry contends with high tax burdens, with taxes often comprising 65-80% of the final retail price. This complex taxation structure, including state excise duties, VAT, and various fees, restricts financial flexibility and profitability.

In addition, the industry is hobbled by significant compliance overheads and a fragmented distribution ecosystem, where regulatory variations across states create logistical inefficiencies and increased costs. The working capital cycle is often elongated due to delayed payments from distributors and high inventory carrying costs, disproportionately affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). For these players, who typically operate on EBITDA margins as low as 10–12%, any downward pressure on pricing can be economically unsustainable.

Indian spirits—particularly whisky, rum, and country liquor—have only a marginal share in global markets. According to data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), India exported alcoholic beverages worth USD 322 million in FY 2022–23, with Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) comprising a major portion. In comparison, the UK exported over £6.2 billion worth of whisky alone in 2022, highlighting the asymmetry in export capacities. The entry of global players with deep pockets, established branding, and premium positioning will make it impossible for Indian brands to compete against them and scale sustainably or capture premium market share. This reduced market share could ultimately lead to downsizing, plant closures, and stagnation in rural supply chains that depend on the sector for income. If local manufacturers lose market share, states could face a decline in excise revenue and employment generation.

Tax increases on alcoholic beverages can negatively impact the alcobev industry in several ways. They lead to higher prices for consumers, potentially reducing demand, and can also increase the costs for producers due to taxes on inputs. Furthermore, tax increases can lead to a decrease in sales volume, impacting the industry’s revenue and potentially leading to job losses.

Reduced Demand and Sales Volume: Higher taxes translate to increased prices for consumers, which can make alcoholic beverages less affordable, particularly for budget-conscious consumers.

This price sensitivity can lead to a decrease in the quantity of alcohol purchased, impacting sales volume for manufacturers and retailers. Some consumers might switch to cheaper brands or even substitute with other alcoholic products, impacting specific segments of the industry.

Increased Production Costs: Even if not directly taxed, the production process of alcoholic beverages involves various inputs like bottles, labels, and packaging materials, which are subject to taxes like GST. The cost of these inputs can rise due to higher taxes, increasing the overall production cost for manufacturers.

This cost pressure can be particularly challenging for smaller or craft producers who may have less financial flexibility to absorb these increases.

Impact on Revenue and Employment: Reduced sales volume and increased production costs can significantly impact the industry’s revenue and profitability. This can lead to potential job losses in the manufacturing, distribution, and retail sectors of the alcobev industry.

The industry might also face challenges in terms of cash flow and working capital, especially when dealing with tax refunds for input costs.

Potential for Unintended Consequences: Some studies suggest that higher taxes may lead to increased illicit production and sale of alcohol to avoid taxation, which can pose public health risks and further impact legitimate businesses. Consumers may also resort to cheaper alternatives or reduce consumption in other areas to afford alcohol, potentially impacting other industries.

While the industry may argue that tax increases do not reduce alcohol-related harm, some research suggests that price increases can lead to reduced consumption, especially among heavy drinkers and young people.

Industry Arguments: The alcoholic beverage industry often argues that tax increases unfairly burden the industry and consumers, and may not be effective in reducing alcohol-related harm. They may also highlight the potential negative impact on employment and tourism, particularly in areas where the industry is a significant contributor to the local economy.

The industry may also argue that other measures, such as public awareness campaigns and responsible drinking initiatives, can be more effective in addressing alcohol-related issues.

Policy Considerations: Policymakers need to consider the potential economic and social impacts of tax increases on the alcobev industry when formulating policies. Balancing the need to generate revenue and address alcohol-related harms with the potential negative consequences for the industry and consumers is crucial. Consultation with the industry, public health experts, and consumers can help to develop more effective and balanced policies.

Overall, while higher taxes on alcoholic beverages can be a tool to address public health concerns and generate revenue, they can also pose significant challenges for the alcobev industry and potentially lead to unintended consequences. A careful and balanced approach is necessary when considering tax policy changes in this sector.

UK Tax Burden Hurting Scotch Whisky

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75% of companies expect to defer investment, or invest outside of the UK due to the high tax burden
One in four Scotch distillers expect to make job cuts as a result of economic headwinds
76% say an increase in duty would make them less likely to take forward capital investment and recruitment

Three in four Scotch Whisky companies will defer UK investment, or invest elsewhere, due to the high tax burden, according to research undertaken by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA). The SWA represents over 90 companies from across the Scotch Whisky industry, that collectively account for the majority of Scotch Whisky production (around 97% of the industry).

India is likely to be one of the destinations for investment as enunciated earlier by the SWA Chief Executive, Mark Kent who had stated after the India-UK free trade agreement was signed that “The deal is good for India too, boosting federal and state revenue by over £3bn annually, and giving discerning consumers in a highly educated whisky market far greater choice from SME Scotch Whisky producers who will now have the opportunity to enter the market.”

Kent had mentioned how “India is Scotch whisky’s largest export market by volume, with the equivalent of more than 192 million bottles exported there in 2024. The volume of Scotch whisky exports to India have grown by more than 200% in the past decade alone, and whisky is hugely popular in India. In fact, India is the largest whisky market in the world. But while many Indian consumers are keen to add a bottle of Scotch to their shelves, bars and collections, Scotch whisky has just a 3% share of the Indian whisky market. There is huge potential for that to grow with the free trade agreement announced in Spring 2025.”

Over two thirds of price goes in taxes

Going back to the research, undertaken between February and June 2025, reveals the extent of concern companies face about the current levels of alcohol duty in the UK – with over two thirds of the average-priced bottle of Scotch Whisky collected in tax.

Following a 10.1% rise in duty in March 2023, and a 3.65% rise announced in October’s Budget, 87% of respondents to SWA’s members’ survey expressed concern that the rate of excise duty will rise once again in this Autumn’s Budget.

Any further rise in duty will have an impact not only on investment, but also recruitment, according to the companies – at a time where the whole industry employs or supports 66,000 jobs across the whole UK. A quarter of companies now expect their overall headcount to decrease given the current levels of alcohol duty.

As well as direct job impacts, there is increasing risk of knock-on job losses across the extended supply chain as distillers reduce production in the face of global tariffs impacting exports.

This research comes as the industry faces significant strain. At the start of the year, over half of those surveyed expected operational costs from Government policies – for example, EPR fees, NIC increases, and tariffs – to increase by 10%; with 40% now expecting that figure to be over 20%. Despite the increased duty levels, HMRC data shows that Treasury spirits duty receipts have not increased and failed to deliver the forecasted revenue growth.

Kent added, “The Scotch whisky industry has a long track record of investment and growth that has benefitted communities across Scotland and the supply chain across the UK. It is also an optimistic and confident sector that believes in creating future growth.

“However, the positivity of the industry is being severely tested by the relentless impact of domestic policies and global circumstances.

“The industry is facing the significant challenge of US tariffs and increasing domestic pressures at a time it would otherwise be looking to support the Prime Minister’s growth mission. This high tax burden is not delivering the expected additional revenue for the Government, but it is costing jobs and investment.

“At a time when the country needs economic growth, we cannot fail to back one of the UK’s longstanding successes.”

Scotch Whisky Industry Records £5.4BN Global Exports in 2024

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High taxes on Scotch whisky, specifically a recent 10.1% duty increase and a subsequent 3.65% increase, are hurting the UK alcobev industry by increasing costs for consumers and businesses, potentially leading to reduced investment and job losses, and ultimately impacting the economy. The industry argues that these tax hikes are counterproductive, leading to decreased government revenue and stifling growth.

The Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) has released global export figures that show the value of Scotch exports stood at £5.4bn in 2024. The equivalent of 1.4bn 70cl bottles of Scotch whisky were exported last year, equating to 44 per second.

The figures, released, show a decrease of 3.7% on 2023 exports by value. The Scotch Whisky Association has called on the UK and Scottish Governments to provide more support for the industry as distillers warn that the combination of pressure on consumer spending, increased domestic tax and regulation, and turbulent global trade, may continue to impact exports into 2025.

Exports by volume have increased by 3.9%, which the industry says reflects the changing trends in global consumer preferences and challenging trading environment.

India has regained its position from France as the world’s number one Scotch whisky export market by volume, with 192m bottles exported, while the United States retains its long-held position as the largest export market by value, worth £971m in 2024.

However, the whisky industry has warned that global trading conditions remain turbulent at the beginning of 2025 and have called on the UK government to do what it can to mitigate growing domestic pressures on the industry. This includes reducing excise duty on the industry, with 70% of the average priced bottle now collected in tax, reconsider the financial impact of Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), and accelerate trade talks to reduce tariffs and market access barriers in key markets, like India.

Commenting on the export figures, Mark Kent, Chief Executive of the Scotch Whisky Association said, “Despite the resilience of the Scotch Whisky industry, 2024 has been a challenging year.

“At home, distillers are being stretched to breaking point, as consumers bear the brunt of a 14% increase on the tax on every bottle of Scotch Whisky in the last 18 months alone. The cumulative effect of inflationary impacts on input costs such as cereals, energy and shipping, and the increased tax and regulatory costs, including the substantial cost of EPR coming later this year, are being fed through to consumers when they are tightening their belts.

“Overseas, the tectonic plates of trade are shifting, and exports to traditionally strong markets in the EU and North America have become much more challenging. We continue to support UK Government to promote strong and open trade relations with key export markets around the world, and particularly to advance negotiations on FTA with India, and engage with the US Administration. The United States remains a key market for Scotch, and where the industry contributes to the US economy through direct investment and jobs.

“But support for the industry’s global success starts at home. For too long, the industry has been taken for granted, with the misguided and simplistic belief that decisions taken in Scotland and the wider UK won’t impact an industry which exports 90% of its product, supports a large local supply chain and plays a valuable part in attracting tourists to Scotland. The Scotch whisky industry is a proven driver of economic growth, jobs and investment, and needs an environment free from the shackles of excessive taxation, regulation and uncertain operating costs. The UK government must redouble its efforts to back Scotch producers to the hilt, as promised by the Prime Minister.”

These are challenging times for the beverage alcohol industry. Changing weather patterns and wildfires are affecting production of essential ingredients like grapes, barley, and hops. Many consumers are switching to low- and no-alcohol beverages. And now, tariffs.

Research by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) indicates that a high tax burden is causing three out of four Scotch whisky companies to either defer or shift investment away from the UK. This reluctance to invest can impact expansions, infrastructure improvements, and innovation within the industry.

Furthermore, a quarter of distillers are considering reducing headcount due to economic pressures and the current alcohol duty levels.

The industry currently supports 66,000 jobs across the UK, and any further tax increases could lead to a decline in employment within the sector and its related supply chain. High domestic taxes can make Scotch whisky more expensive compared to other spirits, both domestically and internationally, potentially impacting its competitive edge.

Tariffs already add pressure, and high domestic taxes further exacerbate this. When a 25% US tariff was imposed on single malts in 2019 (later suspended), the industry lost over £600 million in exports to the US over 18 months. This highlights how external factors, combined with domestic tax burdens, can significantly hinder export performance.

Despite duty increases, HMRC data hasn’t always shown the expected rise in spirits duty receipts. This suggests that excessive taxation can potentially discourage consumption, leading to lower-than-anticipated tax revenues, a point raised by the SWA.

While recent changes to alcohol duty have included a draught relief to support the hospitality industry, the overall duty increases can still impact the price of drinks, including Scotch whisky, in bars and restaurants. This can affect consumer spending in the on-trade sector and subsequently impact the businesses that rely on alcohol sales.

Alcohol taxes are implemented to generate revenue and address public health concerns, excessive or poorly structured taxes can have detrimental consequences for the UK alcobev industry, particularly Scotch whisky, by impacting investment, jobs, exports, and competitiveness.