- 75% of companies expect to defer investment, or invest outside of the UK due to the high tax burden
- One in four Scotch distillers expect to make job cuts as a result of economic headwinds
- 76% say an increase in duty would make them less likely to take forward capital investment and recruitment
Three in four Scotch Whisky companies will defer UK investment, or invest elsewhere, due to the high tax burden, according to research undertaken by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA). The SWA represents over 90 companies from across the Scotch Whisky industry, that collectively account for the majority of Scotch Whisky production (around 97% of the industry).
India is likely to be one of the destinations for investment as enunciated earlier by the SWA Chief Executive, Mark Kent who had stated after the India-UK free trade agreement was signed that “The deal is good for India too, boosting federal and state revenue by over £3bn annually, and giving discerning consumers in a highly educated whisky market far greater choice from SME Scotch Whisky producers who will now have the opportunity to enter the market.”
Kent had mentioned how “India is Scotch whisky’s largest export market by volume, with the equivalent of more than 192 million bottles exported there in 2024. The volume of Scotch whisky exports to India have grown by more than 200% in the past decade alone, and whisky is hugely popular in India. In fact, India is the largest whisky market in the world. But while many Indian consumers are keen to add a bottle of Scotch to their shelves, bars and collections, Scotch whisky has just a 3% share of the Indian whisky market. There is huge potential for that to grow with the free trade agreement announced in Spring 2025.”
Over two thirds of price goes in taxes
Going back to the research, undertaken between February and June 2025, reveals the extent of concern companies face about the current levels of alcohol duty in the UK – with over two thirds of the average-priced bottle of Scotch Whisky collected in tax.
Following a 10.1% rise in duty in March 2023, and a 3.65% rise announced in October’s Budget, 87% of respondents to SWA’s members’ survey expressed concern that the rate of excise duty will rise once again in this Autumn’s Budget.
Any further rise in duty will have an impact not only on investment, but also recruitment, according to the companies – at a time where the whole industry employs or supports 66,000 jobs across the whole UK. A quarter of companies now expect their overall headcount to decrease given the current levels of alcohol duty.
As well as direct job impacts, there is increasing risk of knock-on job losses across the extended supply chain as distillers reduce production in the face of global tariffs impacting exports.
This research comes as the industry faces significant strain. At the start of the year, over half of those surveyed expected operational costs from Government policies – for example, EPR fees, NIC increases, and tariffs – to increase by 10%; with 40% now expecting that figure to be over 20%. Despite the increased duty levels, HMRC data shows that Treasury spirits duty receipts have not increased and failed to deliver the forecasted revenue growth.
Kent added, “The Scotch whisky industry has a long track record of investment and growth that has benefitted communities across Scotland and the supply chain across the UK. It is also an optimistic and confident sector that believes in creating future growth.
“However, the positivity of the industry is being severely tested by the relentless impact of domestic policies and global circumstances.
“The industry is facing the significant challenge of US tariffs and increasing domestic pressures at a time it would otherwise be looking to support the Prime Minister’s growth mission. This high tax burden is not delivering the expected additional revenue for the Government, but it is costing jobs and investment.
“At a time when the country needs economic growth, we cannot fail to back one of the UK’s longstanding successes.”