• Total beverage alcohol (TBA) consumption volume declined -1% during H1 2025
• TBA volume in India grew +7%
• RTDs are growing, but beer is softening

Global beverage alcohol volumes are now expected to decline more sharply in 2025 than previously forecast, according to IWSR’s first mid-year update. The revised outlook shows a -0.4% drop in global volume (previously -0.2%) and a -0.7% decline in value.

The downgrade is largely due to unexpected weakness in beer, especially in the US and China. IWSR now expects global beer volume to fall -0.2% in 2025 instead of growing. Spirits are projected to decline -1.3% and wine -2.4%, while RTDs remain the only category set to grow at +1.3%.

In the US, cost-of-living pressures and reduced on-premise visits have softened beer sales, alongside a notable drop in Mexican beer. In China, policy restrictions and slower economic growth have reduced alcohol consumption, pushing beer and brandy forecasts down.

IWSR’s 2026 outlook remains unchanged at 0% growth in both volume and value. The company will now issue forecasts twice a year and has launched a Scenario Planner to model macroeconomic shifts across 31 key markets.

Across twenty major markets, TBA volume fell -1% in H1 2025, though value remained stable. India led growth with +7%, followed by South Africa (+4%), Mexico (+2%), Thailand (+1%) and Colombia (+1%). Declines were concentrated in China (-2%), the US (-4%) and Germany (-5%).

RTDs (+3%) and Prosecco continued to outperform. Spirits grew +1% when national spirits were excluded, with strong performances from Indian whisky (+7%), bitters (+3%), no-alcohol spirits (+9%) and agave spirits (+1%). Irish whiskey grew in India and Japan.

Beer fell -1% globally in H1 2025, with growth only in markets like India, South Africa, Mexico and Thailand. Wine declined -5%, except for Prosecco, which posted strong gains.

IWSR highlights a polarised landscape with RTDs and select spirits rising while beer and wine soften. India continues to stand out and is forecast to surpass Japan’s TBA volume in 2027 and Germany’s in 2033.